With six months until the November midterm elections, polling data shows competitive races in 8 Senate seats that will determine control of the chamber, with neither party holding a clear advantage in the aggregate.
Key Races
The current 51-49 Senate split means Democrats must defend their slim majority against a challenging electoral map.
- Pennsylvania (D-held): 47-46 Republican lead, within margin of error
- Wisconsin (R-held): 48-45 Democratic lead, strongest pickup opportunity
- North Carolina (R-held): 46-46 dead heat
- Nevada (D-held): 47-46 Democratic lead, razor-thin
- Arizona (D-held): 48-44 Republican lead, trending away from Democrats
- Michigan (D-held): 49-44 Democratic lead, likely safe
- Ohio (R-held): 50-43 Republican lead, likely safe
- Montana (R-held): 48-45 Republican lead, former swing seat
National Mood
Generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading 46-44 nationally, but Senate races are increasingly driven by candidate quality and local issues rather than national sentiment. Campaign spending across these 8 races has already exceeded $800 million with 6 months remaining.
