Gas Prices Surge Past $4 as Conflict Enters Second Month
The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline reached $4.09 on April 5, 2026, according to AAA, marking a 37% increase from the $2.98 average recorded on March 1, the day U.S. military operations against Iran commenced. The price surge is the fastest sustained increase since the 2022 spike following Russias invasion of Ukraine.
In several states, prices have already exceeded $5.00 per gallon:
- California: $5.47 average
- Hawaii: $5.29 average
- Washington: $4.98 average
- Nevada: $4.82 average
- Oregon: $4.76 average
Why Prices Are Rising So Fast
The primary driver is the sustained increase in crude oil prices. Brent crude is trading at approximately $106 per barrel, up from $72 in late February. Several factors are compounding the surge:
“This is not just a supply disruption. It is a risk premium. Markets are pricing in the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could be partially or fully closed, which would be the most significant oil supply shock since 1973.” — Tom Kloza, Head of Energy Analysis, OPIS
- Strait of Hormuz risk premium: Insurance and routing costs have soared as shippers avoid the most direct routes through the strait
- Iranian oil off the market: Approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports have been curtailed by military operations
- OPEC+ restraint: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members have increased output by only 500,000 bpd, far less than the shortfall
- Refinery margins: U.S. refineries are running at 92% capacity, up from 88%, but seasonal maintenance has limited the ability to surge production
Economic Impact
The gas price surge is having a measurable impact on consumer spending and economic sentiment. According to the University of Michigans Consumer Sentiment Index, consumer confidence dropped 12 points in March, the largest monthly decline since the pandemic.
The average American household is now spending approximately $65 more per month on gasoline compared to pre-conflict levels. For families with long commutes or multiple vehicles, the additional burden can exceed $150 per month.
Administration Response
The White House has taken several steps to address rising prices, though critics say the measures are insufficient:
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve release: 30 million barrels authorized over 60 days
- Gas tax holiday proposal: President Trump has called on Congress to suspend the 18.4-cent federal gas tax through September
- Refinery incentives: Executive order streamlining permitting for refinery capacity expansions
- Diplomatic pressure: Secretary of State engaged with Saudi Arabia and UAE to increase output
Political Fallout
Gas prices have become a potent political issue as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Republican leaders have argued that the military action is necessary for national security, while Democrats have criticized the administration for failing to secure congressional authorization and to adequately prepare for the economic consequences.
Polling data from Gallup shows that 62% of Americans cite gas prices as their top economic concern, surpassing inflation, housing costs, and job security. The issue is particularly salient in suburban and rural districts where residents are more dependent on personal vehicles.
Forecast
Energy analysts at GasBuddy and JPMorgan forecast that the national average could reach $4.50 to $5.00 by Memorial Day weekend if the conflict continues at its current intensity. A significant escalation involving direct attacks on oil infrastructure could push prices to $6.00 or higher, levels not seen since the adjusted highs of the 1970s oil crisis.
